What we miss in Shintaro Ishihara's program, aside from his nationalism and anti-China antagonism, is a clear economic plan to counter Japan's drift downward in growth rate and productivity, which are vital to Japan's exceptional circumstances — especially given the series of disasters that have befallen the countrt in recent years, including the brand-new earthquake in the northeast and the tsunami alert following from it. Failure to campaign on an economic plan is the Achilles' heel of Mr. Ishihara's endeavour.
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Politicarp, refWrite Frontpage politics newspotter, analyst, columnist
The Age, Australia (Dec10,2k12)
Japan's populist maverick
thinks his time is now
''Here I am, the old man who has run amok'' ... Shintaro Ishihara, a former governor of Tokyo, speaks at a rally for the Japan Restoration Party. Photo: Bloomberg
SHINTARO ISHIHARA has been a rare flamboyant presence in Japan's otherwise drab political world for half a century.
A novelist turned right-wing firebrand, he has long held celebrity status on the political margins. He once signed a pact in blood to oppose diplomatic ties with China because of its communist government, and he published a book at the height of Japan's economic power that lectured his countrymen on the need to end what he considered its postwar servility to the US.
Now, at 80, Mr Ishihara is leading a newly formed populist party and has emerged as a contender for prime minster, vowing to turn Japan into a more independent, possibly nuclear-armed nation.
Making the running ... Shinzo Abe, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and front-runner for the election. Photo: AP/Kyodo News
While political analysts deem him a long shot, they say the fact that he has got this far after decades of pushing what was seen as a fringe agenda is a worrying sign of how desperate Japan is for strong leadership after years of cascading troubles.
With his promises to restore Japan's battered national pride, Mr Ishihara has staked out an even more stridently nationalistic position than the present front-runner, Shinzo Abe, the leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, who has called for revising Japan's pacifist constitution.
If Mr Ishihara succeeds in his bid to become prime minister, analysts worry he could weaken relations with the US, pull Japan to the right and damage ties with China, which is already angered by his almost single-handedly rekindling a territorial dispute over an island chain.
Battleships ... Japanese and Chinese coast guards near the Senkaku isles or Diaoyu islands. Photo: Reuters
But even in the likely event that Mr Ishihara loses, the analysts say, his campaign could still have a lasting effect, bringing patriotic populism into the political mainstream of a nation that has shunned such open jingoism since its devastating defeat in World War II.
''This election will be a test of whether Japan is really losing its dovishness,'' said Takeshi Sasaki, a politics professor at Gakushuin University in Tokyo.
''There is so much irritation at how everything seems to be going wrong, and Japan is losing its pride. Politicians on the right, like Ishihara and Abe, are trying to fan these flames.''
The rise of the two hard-liners has already contributed to hand-wringing among liberals, who are anxious that the foreboding sense that Japan is fast becoming an international has-been has left the Japanese vulnerable to long-suppressed nationalism.
Even those who regard those fears as overblown acknowledge that anti-China feelings, which could be easily exploited, are rising as that country eclipses Japan, builds a formidable military and makes its territorial ambitions clear [at Japan's expense].
From Mr Ishihara's vantage point, those geopolitical realities make now the perfect time for Japan to put him in charge.
''Here I am, the old man who has run amok!'' he bellowed to a wave of applause at a recent campaign appearance in front of Shinjuku train station in Tokyo. ''I am 80 years old, and I am standing here because I want to break through the indecisive and barren politics that is stifling Japan!''
A tall, bespectacled figure, Mr Ishihara spent most of his short speech emphasising what has become the central campaign message of his Japan Restoration Party: offering forceful leadership to end Japan's long political drift by breaking the grip of bureaucrats and vested interests.
Much of the party's message, however, has become vintage Ishihara. He goes further than Mr Abe, calling for an outright scrapping of Japan's anti-war constitution, written by its postwar US occupiers. He still speaks about ending what he sees as political and cultural subservience to the US and pledges to resist Chinese territorial appetites, promising to build permanent structures on the disputed islands in a move that is likely to further antagonise China.
''I cannot allow myself to die until my Japan, which has been made a fool of by China, and seduced as a mistress by the United States, is able to stand up again as a stronger, more beautiful nation,'' Mr Ishihara said last month to reporters, explaining why he resigned after 13 years as Tokyo's governor to return to national politics.
He did so after being asked to lead the fledgling Restoration Party's slate in this month's parliamentary election by its founder, Toru Hashimoto, the popular mayor of Osaka who did not yet want to run for national office.
So far, polls show that Mr Ishihara has only limited appeal. His party's approval ratings are in the low teens, about the same as the unpopular incumbent Democratic Party, but below Mr Abe's Liberal Democrats, who poll only slightly better, at about 20 per cent.
Polls also show that more than half of voters disapprove of Mr Ishihara and [disapprove] of scrapping the anti-war clause of Japan's constitution.
Still, there is a slight chance the Liberal Democrats will not garner enough support to win a majority in the lower house. If that happens, Mr Ishihara stands a chance of becoming a kingmaker who can name his price for joining a coalition government: the prime ministership.
Mr Ishihara seems to be betting that his undeniable star power will give him an edge in an election crowded by unknown new parties and established parties that many people view as too indecisive or inept to move Japan past its financial paralysis.
''Ishihara sees this as his last chance to win a place in the history books,'' said Masakuni Murakami, a former Liberal Democratic Party heavyweight who has known Mr Ishihara for more than three decades. ''He wants to go down as the man who gave Japan its pride and self-confidence back.''
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